Books avert crisis as underdogs win in the right spots

By Rex Factor

A black cloud was hanging over sportsbook offices all over Las Vegas, Costa Rica and anyone else who writes bets on professional football on Sunday afternoon at about 3:30 p.m. EDT. Favorites were well on their way to getting the money in five of the first seven games, and public dog Detroit was manhandling the Jets at the Meadowlands.

Thankfully for the bookmakers, crises were averted thanks to a spate of timely results that were good for the house. Tampa Bay rallying from a touchdown down to stun the Steelers in Pittsburgh, 27-24, as a touchdown underdog, was the most important of those early scores. There were many teasers tied to the Steelers, with people ramming the game down through seven and three, the key numbers in NFL point spreads.

The house’s good fortune didn’t end there.

The Chargers covering double digits in a 33-14 win over Jacksonville and San Francisco beating Philly 26-21 (in a game where the line was 5 at times during the week, a ghastly result for the stores writing 2-way action) put the shops in position to get annihilated in the late afternoon games for the second straight week.

Luckily for them, it was Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings to the rescue. A late steam move on the Falcons drive Atlanta to as high as a 5 or 5.5 point favorite in Minneapolis, but the Vikings took control from the start and were almost always in command of their 41-28 outright win.

The tables stayed turned late when public side New Orleans was blasted by Dallas, 38-17, in a game that was never really close. The Saints ended up closing a field goal or so favorite, with juice on the home dog. But the Cowboys responded with their most complete performance on both sides of the ball in some time, and now the Saints must question what’s happening to their season as they now sit at 1-3.

Bookmakers from coast-to-coast (with the exception of the ones in Kansas City) were smiling at the result of Monday Night Football as well. The Chiefs led New England 17-0 at halftime, and showed no let-up, in blasting the pedestrian Patriots, 41-14, in front of a raucous crowd at Arrowhead Stadium, to move to 2-2 on the season. The Pats were actually favored in this game, but plenty of sharp money came for the underdog, forcing the game down to 2 and 2.5 at some places when the game started.

The big surprise of the week to some was the ability of a Thursday night underdog to go on the road and win outright. The previous few games of the season have been home team maulings, but the Giants went to Washington and beat them like a drum, 45-14, as a 3 or 3.5 point underdog.

The bettors did find some early success if they were able to avoid the numerous pitfalls that were referenced above. Miami blasted Oakland in London, 38-14, covering the four points with ease. Green Bay beat up on the Bears in Chicago, 38-17 in a game where the Packers closed a small favorite. Houston was able to beat Buffalo in a good two-way game, 23-17. Indianapolis shoved Tennessee around at home, 41-14, with the Colts’ backers never having to sweat the touchdown they laid. And Baltimore’s Steve Smith showed that he’s still spry at age 35. In his 14th season, he scored two touchdowns in the first half for the Ravens as they beat up on his old team, the Carolina Panthers, 38-10.

Rex Factor has been handicapping the NFL for 15 years and has taken it far more seriously in the last five years, as he realizes it’s the one sport that he can get down whatever he wants to bet without it affecting the market, unlike in baseball and in some other sports.

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