These are the best early MLB futures to bet in 2023.
Key Points
– There are a number of solid MLB futures bets heading into the 2023 season.
– There is a lot of value in the individual awards in the 2023 MLB futures market.
Early MLB Futures to Bet in 2023
Spring training is underway and very soon MLB fans will be getting ready for Opening Day. With baseball right around the corner, it’s time to take a look at the early MLB futures to bet in 2023.
MLB Futures – Phillies to Win World Series
The Philadelphia Phillies were within two games of winning a World Series title last year. Four National League teams are ahead of Philadelphia, now at +1700, on the betting board.
The Phillies lost Jean Segura in the offseason but gained Trea Turner, who is arguably the best shortstop in baseball. The pitching rotation is outstanding with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the No. 1 and 2 slots. The Phillies also picked up Taijuan Walker in the offseason and the bullpen is solid with Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto.
Bryce Harper will miss half the season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but the Phillies can make a run late in the season to ensure a playoff berth. The 2023 Phillies will be even better than the 2022 version.
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American League MVP
If there is one MLB player that will benefit more than any other from the league’s new shift rules, it’s Texas SS Corey Seager. Last year, the Rangers’ slugger had the worst season of his career – .772 OPS and .245 batting average.
His BABIP was just .242 last season, which is far below his lifetime .317. A big portion of that was because Seager lost more hits to shifts than any hitter in the majors last year. With the new shift rules in effect, Seager is slated to be a top-10 player in WAR in 2023. Even in his career-worst season, Seager was still worth 4.0 WAR in 151 games.
That’s why you can find Seager at +2000 at some sportsbooks and as high as +4000 at a few others.
MLB Futures – NL MVP
Over the past two seasons, Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr. has not been healthy. He finally says he is back to 100 percent, which is why Acuna is given +1400 odds to win the NL MVP.
The Braves won the World Series in 2021 but lost to Philadelphia in the NLDS last year. That gave Acuna some time to heal and work on his game. He is projected to put up a 30-homer, 30-stolen bases season.
If he hits those numbers, he’ll have a great shot at earning the NL MVP. You’ll have the opportunity to really cash in big when you learn to calculate betting unit size.
American League Cy Young Winner
For at least a year now, Cristian Javier has been the top pitcher for the defending World Series champion Houston Astros. Javier should finally break out of Justin Verlander’s shadow now that he is with the Mets.
With a 1.79 ERA in 70.1 innings in the second half of 2022,, Javier stifled batters. Despite only being in the 52nd percentile for Average Exit Velocity, he managed to limit hitters to a pitiful 33.6% hard hit rate, which is a significant decrease from the 43.2% of the previous season. Although his walk rate was over 8% in 2022, he decreased it from 12.5% to 8.9% in a year, placing his strikeout rate in the 94th percentile at 33.2%, up from 30.7% in 2021.
Javier will continue to improve in 2023. His xERA and ERA for the season were exactly in line with one another, which typically produces reliable outcomes. His season-long 2.43 xERA and 2.54 ERA ranked him among the league’s best. Verlander had an xERA of 2.66, Dylan Cease had a 2.70, and Sandy Alcántara had a 2.90.
NL Cy Young Award Winner
The starting pitcher pool in the National League is deep. Justin Verlander takes the place of Jacob deGrom for the Mets. Reigning NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins returns, but there might be an even better arm ready to pounce in 2023.
With a 2.54 ERA and 5.1 WAR, Arizona’s Zac Gallen placed sixth overall and fourth in the National League. Over his last eight starts, Gallen’s ERA dropped to 1.61 and he finished the season with a WHIP of 0.91. That was second in the majors. Gallen also had a 3.05 FIP and a .213 xBA.
Gallen’s problem will be playing for a mediocre Diamondbacks team. He finished 12-4 for the season and might need a few more wins, but at +1700 Gallen makes for an intriguing NL Cy Young prospect. Bettors that want to win big in MLB futures need to understand how to approach betting underdogs like Gallen.
Diamondbacks Over 74.5 Wins
Speaking of Arizona, the D-Backs (-115) were one of the most profitable First Five teams in MLB last year. Their bullpen kept them from having a much better season. The bullpen isn’t all that much better entering the 2023 season, but the D-Backs have a trio of young pitchers that could make a huge difference – Drey Jameson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson.
Gallen is one of the top pitchers in all of baseball. Madison Bumgarner and Merrill Kelly are also reliable starters and Arizona will have the front-runner to win the NL Rookie of the Year – Corbin Carroll.
If Ketel Marte gets healthier, he has a great chance of having a comeback season. By producing more consistently, Evan Longoria and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. should raise the bar for this lineup. An 80-win season is not out of the question.
