How you should be betting CBB futures odds early.
Key Points
– Betting CBB futures odds early makes sense in certain situations.
– Bettors can cash in big when betting CBB futures odds early.
Betting CBB Futures Odds Early
Right after the nets are taken down and the NCAA men’s basketball championship has been awarded for the season, bettors can place a wager on the team they believe will win the next year’s title.
It’s always interesting to see what the projections are for the next season. Typically, teams that fared well in the previous season will be among the early favorites. However, there is typically not much of a betting opportunity at that time.
Locking up funds betting CBB futures odds early before a new season has started will usually require much greater value than what is available. Occasionally, there is a future price that is so appealing that it makes sense to wager as soon as you can.
Here are four scenarios when betting CBB futures odds early makes good sense.
High Profile Freshmen
The public loves high profile freshmen. The problem is that the public doesn’t spend enough time on college basketball recruiting. The betting public pays way more attention to college football recruiting.
That gives the smarter bettor an advantage and that’s why fading the public betting makes sense. He’ll know more about these high profile freshmen than the average bettor. Some freshmen make more of an impact than others.
A freshman who is given the opportunity to succeed can be crucial to his team’s success. Fans and bettors have seen time and time again that this happens.
There is a good chance you can get a head start on betting CBB futures odds early just by understanding the impact of a new freshmen class. The betting public won’t pick up on these freshmen until they have played some games in the new season.
It’s crucial though that you are absolutely certain that an incoming class will have the chance to make such an impact. The coach needs to be willing to play freshmen, especially those that are ready to play immediately.
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Betting CBB Futures Odds Early on a Coaching Change
By the time futures odds are released, the coaching carousel will have typically stopped spinning. All 350-plus NCAA Division I basketball teams usually have their head coach in place when the futures odds are released for the following season.
The general public’s perception of the high-profile, big-name coaching changes will be favorable. Once again, the smarter, savvier bettor gains an advantage.
The public won’t be nearly as tuned in to lesser-known coaching names that are still very important. For example, an assistant coach from a well-known program gets his first opportunity with his own team.
The same may be true of a coach that took a break from the grind of coaching college basketball and then decided to return. If you follow teams and coaches, you’ll have a much better understanding of a team’s abilities compared to the general public.
The result will be an ability to spot value on betting CBB futures odds early in a new season. It may also help in your approach to betting underdogs during the season. Exercise caution though as it is extremely difficult to achieve success right away when taking over a new program.
The Public Effect
There are certain times that betting on CBB futures odds early is a must. If you anticipate a big adjustment in odds once the general public gets hold of a bet, you should pull the trigger.
Once the public gets in on a wager, the odds will only get worse. If you like a team as a +900 favorite to win the national championship and that team happens to be Duke or Kentucky, those odds might drop to +450 once the public has pounded it. Remember, the public loves popular teams like the Blue Devils and Wildcats and their action can have a dramatic effect on futures odds.
If there is an opportunity to get in early on a certain team, take advantage and do it. The odds will only drop out of your favor later. Get in early and lock in that value.
Roster Changes
Each year, college basketball rosters experience a lot of turnover. New rules regarding transfers, players leaving for the NBA, and the smaller size of the roster all contribute to roster changes from year to year.
Every year, teams lose key players. Sometimes, the impact of losing a player or two is not as detrimental as many would believe. As you prepare for betting basketball, you should keep this in mind.
Smart bettors can often find value in the public becoming alarmed when a key player leaves a school either to go to the NBA, transfer to another school, or simply graduate. The public puts too much emphasis on the loss of one player.
Bettors that do their research can dig in and find value a number of ways on a team like this. Maybe the key player that is gone was not a great team player and, as a result, the team never reached its potential.
It could be that the freshmen class coming in is even more talented than the player or players that were lost. Smarter bettors will not overvalue the loss of a star player. This could turn into a situation where the public lays off a bet and you swoop in on a longshot and get the team early before they go on to a very successful season.
Keep in mind that over the past 13 college basketball seasons, the eventual NCAA national champion was given preseason betting odds that averaged around +1900.
If you are betting CBB futures odds early, keep these tips in mind.
