The 2023 NBA draft is set for Thursday, June 22, at the Barclays Center in New York City. The NBA playoffs are still going on, but bettors can start looking and planning ahead. Betting on drafts, whether they be NBA or NFL, requires a different strategy than betting on live events.
Key Points
– There is a wealth of information to be found when betting on the 2023 NBA draft.
– Be careful to not overreact to information and to get rid of your own personal bias.
Betting on a Draft
When making the typical point spread bet on an NFL game, there are a number of uncontrollable factors involved. Maybe you like the Bills -3 against the Patriots. You like it so much you make it a five-unit bet.
On the first play of the game, Bills QB Josh Allen gets hurt. That pretty much ruins your wager. With a draft, there are still some things out of your control. However, in the end, NBA commissioner walks to the podium and announces a name. You either win or you lose.
It’s not all that simple, but usually in a draft situation, especially the first few picks, there aren’t that many surprises. That is why bettors can dominate the 2023 NBA draft. Here’s how.
Get Rid of Your Own Bias
It’s almost cliché, but it’s still the most crucial element if you want to get it right. Get rid of any prejudice and opinions you may have about a player. It makes no difference.
You are not the person making the selection. You are not a team’s general manager. It is in the best interest of NBA draft bettors to try and get inside the head of a team’s front office. What are a team’s needs? Who do they like?
A bettor’s individual opinion just doesn’t matter when you want to win a sports bet.
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Avoid Too Many Mock Drafts
Mock drafts are the click-bait monsters of addiction. Bettors can get sucked into looking at hundreds of them. Don’t.
It’s crucial to select a small group of reliable experts and adhere to their recommendations. If you simply begin examining each and every mock draft that appears online, your head will spring. You will get a flurry of conflicting viewpoints and you will waste a lot of time that you could have spent elsewhere.
Nearly as important as where each expert places their projected order of picks is the context that goes along with it. However, draft experts and NBA insiders will add what they are hearing in terms of inside information. That information can be gold.
Some analysts will create their own power rating for a draft. This is similar to creating power ratings for teams in different sports. This can be useful for draft bettors.
Pay Attention to the 2023 NBA Draft Big Board
It’s wise for NBA bettors to look at the overall big board for this year’s draft. NBA teams tend to place more value on the best player available. In the NFL draft, teams will select players based on positional needs. Even though an NBA team doesn’t need a point guard, if one is the best player on the board, he is more likely to be selected.
In last year’s NFL draft, the Pittsburgh Steelers needed a quarterback. They selected Kenny Pickett even though there were a dozen or so players ahead of him on the big board. Pittsburgh had a need and the need superseded the best player available.
2023 NBA Draft Odds Will Change
Draft odds are the most delicate type of wager there is. The juice will be moved on even the smallest bets. If there is a rush of money coming in, you’ll see bets pulled immediately.
It’s simple to assume “someone knows something” and chase steam when there is a significant line move. It’s possible that the books were responding to a single bettor who placed a larger wager than usual.
There is also a belief that “Vegas knows everything” and has inside information that other bookmakers don’t. Not true. Books are equally knowledgeable as the rest of us. They do, however, have to worry about all the other sports they set lines for.
You can probably understand why books might be very responsive to any larger-than-normal action coming in when “sharps” make up the vast majority of bettors who wager on the draft.
A draft wager is unique in that it really has neither a public nor a contrarian side. Both the public and the sharps are the same. One can’t simply bet blindly, but it is preferable to lay -300 when the price is -400 to infinity than to bet at -110 when the odds should be +300.
Never Overreact
Don’t overreact to any information that someone hears unless the someone is Adrian Wojnarowski or Adam Schefter of ESPN. Wait for information that corroborates it from reliable sources before acting on it.
If you’re unsure, give it some thought. Remember this, too. It’s better to miss out on a bet not placed than to wager on one based on information that turned out to be false. It’s the same when you bet during the season. Go HERE to read more about preparing to bet on basketball.
Use Reddit and Twitter for the 2023 NBA Draft
Reddit and Twitter are underutilized when it comes to NBA draft time. There is a ton of actionable information that gets missed in these feeds.
Search for a player or a player and a team and select “Latest” to see the results. You will find all sorts of random retweets on Twitter. Many might be nothing, but you may come across some solid information to support a bet that you are thinking of making.
If you want success betting on the 2023 NBA draft, utilize the special opportunity that the draft offers. There is only one each year, and it’s not always certain that there will be any value in any of the picks.