NCAAB Betting – When to Back a Mid-Major Against a Major

When to back a mid-major against a major in NCAAB Betting.

Key Points

– In NCAAB betting, there are times when it makes sense to back a mid-major team against a team from a major conference.

– Mid-major teams pull plenty of college basketball upsets every year.

There are many biases among the college basketball betting public. They love to bet on favorites and they love the Over. Because of these public trends, oddsmakers will build these biases into their lines and odds to increase the sportsbooks’ chances of winning.

Smart bettors are aware of these biases and will take line movement into account when looking for NCAAB betting value. Another of the betting public’s biases leads them to bet on teams from a major conference against those from a mid-major.

The public nearly always supports the more well-known school over the lesser-known one. Often, this is not the best course of action. Major conferences still have some bad teams and mid-major conferences often have some very good ones. 

Bettors that can identify situations where a mid-major team merits more credit than the general public believes are those who find value. Here are five scenarios where backing a mid-major makes sense in NCAAB betting.

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Examining a college team’s prior performance versus major conference opponents is the simplest approach to determine whether it has what it takes to beat a major. At the very least, you can see if they covered the spread against teams from a major conference. 

A mid-major that has previously competed well against more well-known teams has the talent to compete and won’t be scared when faced with a big-time opponent. On the other hand, it might be difficult to predict how well a team will match up if it hasn’t had much success against large conference opponents.  

Teams from mid-major conferences do not normally have rosters full of bigger, faster, more talented athletes. Teams from conferences like the Big Ten and Big East do. In NCAAB betting, the public thinks that the more athletic team will always win. This, of course, is not always true.

There are plenty of mid-major schools that have pulled huge upsets over teams much more athletic. Mid-major schools often rise to the occasion to prove they belong when playing a more well-known opponent. Teams from major conferences often overlook smaller schools and think of them as an easy win.

There are mid-major basketball programs where a coach has been around for a while. Their style of play is such that it gives major opponents difficulty because they don’t see it that often. 

Because mid-major programs don’t get the elite talent that major programs like Kentucky, Kansas, and Duke get; they try to compete with a unique or innovative style of play. There are teams that play an up-tempo game where the goal is to shoot as many threes as possible. Other styles of play include mid-major teams that use the entire shot clock and try to shorten the game. 

Until they play against such a team for the first time, major conference teams are unlikely to have encountered these unique systems. It can be challenging to get ready for such an opponent. NCAAB betting is a challenge. You might consider whether you should buy college basketball picks.

When considering placing a bet on a mid-major against a major, it would help to understand both teams’ styles of play. 

Just because a team plays in the Big Ten or ACC doesn’t always mean they are a good team. There are some bad basketball teams in all of the major conferences. Sometimes, a team from one of these conferences isn’t as good as they appear to be. 

This is why college basketball bettors should be careful when looking at team records. A team from a major conference that is 15-2, for example, would be one that the betting public would back against a team like Monmouth or Siena. The major team could have built that record against teams with losing records.

It happens on the other end too. Teams with a mediocre record got there because they played an extremely difficult schedule. In the end, that team is better prepared to take on elite opponents. 

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One of the biggest things to look for in NCAAB betting is a trap game. A Big 12 team, for example, plays a non-conference game against a team from the Missouri Valley Conference. 

After having played a difficult couple of conference games, the Big 12 team has a “break” playing a mid-major. The Big 12 team is the likely favorite, but they might be looking ahead to their next conference opponent. This happens quite often. 

Players find themselves focused on the next opponent instead of the pretty good mid-major opponent right in front of them. Smart college basketball bettors understand these situations and know where to find them. These are times when a bettor can find an underdog ripe for a moneyline upset or, at the very least, covering the spread. One of these times is March Madness. Using these strategies can help in handicapping NCAA tournament Cinderella teams.